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Ultrasound validation of predictive model for central cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer on BRAF

    Jie Chen

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, PR China

    ,
    Xiao-Long Li

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    ,
    Yi-Feng Zhang

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    ,
    Dan Wang

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    ,
    Qiao Wang

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    ,
    Chong-Ke Zhao

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    ,
    Ming-Xu Li

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    ,
    Qing Wei

    Department of Pathology, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    ,
    Guo Ji

    Department of Pathology, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    &
    Hui-Xiong Xu

    *Author for correspondence: Tel.: +86 21 66307539;

    E-mail Address: xuhuixiong@126.com

    Department of Medical Ultrasound, Shanghai Tenth People’s Hospital, Ultrasound Research & Education Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Thyroid Institute, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Shanghai Center for Thyroid Disease, Shanghai 200072, PR China

    Published Online:https://doi.org/10.2217/fon-2020-0069

    Aim: To compare the value of predictive power of the models for central cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs). Patients & methods: 220 PTCs were prospectively enrolled into the study with pathological examination. We established a new risk model with univariate and multivariate analyses and receiver-operating characteristic curves were plotted. Z-test was performed to compare the area under two curves and validated the predictive model for central CLNM in PTCs. The comparison of previous and new predictive model was analyzed. Results: Microcalcification, capsule contact or involvement, internal flow and BRAFV600E mutation were four independent risk factors for PTCs with central CLNMs. The area under the curves for the new and the previous model were 0.948 and 0.934 (p = 0.572), respectively. Conclusion: Two predictive models showed strong consistency in predicting central CLNM in PTCs. The predictive model may be helpful in selecting appropriate treatment method in PTCs.

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